The Junior Game
25 September 2024, by Mark van der Linden
In the cycling transfer season, it seems that riders are being signed by professional teams at increasingly younger ages. Last week, the newly crowned time trial world champion, Paul Seixas, signed a pro contract with Decathlon - AG2R La Mondiale Team, while last year's road race world champion Albert Withen Philipsen (2023) signed with Lidl-Trek for next season just a week after winning the rainbow jersey in Glasgow. Talent develops quickly, and teams need to act fast.
- 2024 Men Junior - Individual Time Trial World Champion, Paul Seixas
Scouts from pro teams are scouring results in younger and younger age categories, searching for emerging talent. If a promising youngster shows high potential, a battle breaks out among various teams to sign the young prodigy. Cycling teams, which were once institutions in their own right, have now transformed into fully-fledged academies. WorldTour teams have junior programs, development squads, continental teams, and clubs as satellite formations. Increasingly, teams are building entire structures in which riders can enter as soon as they enter the junior ranks and progress through the system, by age category, until they are ready for a pro contract, provided they prove good enough. In the race to secure the biggest talents, the major teams can't afford to miss the boat. Better to have 15 promising riders within the team’s structure, knowing only two might eventually be good enough for the flagship squad, than to miss out on them entirely.
Riders like Remco Evenepoel and Cian Uijtdebroeks, and emerging talents such as Jarno Widar, Joshua Tarling, and Jørgen Nordhagen suggest that the gap between the higher placed juniors and the pros seems to have narrowed, if not vanished. More and more riders, like them, are skipping the U23 category altogether.
What does this look like when we examine the top talents from the NEW junior rankings on ProCyclingStats? Let's break it down. Which riders from the top of the rankings are already connected to, or have future contracts with, pro teams? Well, it turns out there are quite a few.
Figure 1. Top junior riders embedded on, or with future contracts with pro team structures.
show moreTwenty-five of the top 30 juniors in the new PCS Junior Ranking are already part of a professional team’s structure. That’s quite something. It’s a lot.
- 2023 Men Junior - Road Race World Champion, Albert Withen Philipsen
To get an even clearer picture, we need to make two important notes. Of course, better juniors tend to secure spots in better teams, and better teams have access to bigger races where more points can be earned, but even so, the trend is remarkable. Additionally, not all junior teams or programs are equally tied to the corresponding pro team. For example, Crabbé-DSTNY is an ordinary club with a junior team that has a partnership with Lotto-DSTNY. Meanwhile, EF Education-ONTO is a junior program backed by EF Education - Easypost, though it operates completely independently from the WorldTour squad.
Now, let’s take a closer look at how many and which riders have already signed contracts with a UCI Continental Team, linked to a professional squad, or directly with the pro team itself. These teams are directly connected to the professional structure, and the contracts are future deals, since juniors are not permitted to race for a CT, PT, or WT team.
Figure 2. Top junior riders embedded on, or with future contracts with pro team structures.
Future contracts on continental and higher level only.
Future contracts on continental and higher level only.
# | Rider | As of | Contract team | Aff. pro team | Fut. pro contract? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | SEIXAS Paul | 2025 | Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team (WT) | ✓ 2025 | |
2 | SCHOOFS Jasper | 2025 | Soudal - Quick-Step Devo Team (CT) | SOQ | |
3 | REMIJN Senna | 2025 | Alpecin-Deceuninck Development Team (CT) | ADC | |
4 | ÁLVAREZ Héctor | 2025 | Lidl - Trek Future Racing (CT) | LTK | |
11 | ØRN-KRISTOFF Felix | 2025 | Wanty - ReUz - Technord (CT) | IWA | ✓ 2026 |
12 | OMRZEL Jakob | 2025 | CTF Victorious (CT) | TBV | |
13 | TAILLIEU Aldo | 2025 | Lotto Dstny Development Team (CT) | LTD | |
15 | VAN DEN BROEK Axel | 2025 | Wanty - ReUz - Technord (CT) | IWA | |
16 | WITHEN PHILIPSEN Albert | 2025 | Lidl - Trek (WT) | ✓ 2025 | |
17 | BESSEGA Andrea | 2025 | Lidl - Trek Future Racing (CT) | LTK |
The list becomes a bit shorter, but it’s still impressively long. With 16 of the top 30 riders in the ranking holding a future contract with either a development team or the pro team itself, just over half of them are already secured with, in many cases, multi-year contracts designed to prepare them for the big leagues. And, just to remind you, it's only September. New deals can still be signed in the next months.
In addition to the race to sign the best junior riders early, the UCI rule allowing riders from development teams to compete for the flagship WorldTour team in professional races also plays a significant role in the growing number of young riders joining development squads. This rule provides a clear pathway for young talent to gain experience in top-level races while still being part of the development structure.
As of September 23rd, seven juniors have already signed future contracts with professional teams, with Seixas and Withen Philipsen's contracts set to begin on January 1st next year:
Figure 3. Top junior riders embedded on, or with future contracts with pro team structures.
Future contracts on professional level only.
Future contracts on professional level only.
# | Rider | As of | Contract team | Aff. pro team | Fut. pro contract? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | SEIXAS Paul | 2025 | Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team (WT) | ✓ 2025 | |
11 | ØRN-KRISTOFF Felix | 2026 | Intermarché - Wanty (WT) | ✓ 2026 | |
16 | WITHEN PHILIPSEN Albert | 2025 | Lidl - Trek (WT) | ✓ 2025 | |
25 | BORREMANS Kasper | 2027 | Bahrain - Victorious (WT) | ✓ 2027 | |
89 | HOLMES Wil | 2026 | Team Jayco AlUla (WT) | ✓ 2026 | |
162 | HERREÑO Martin Santiago | 2025 | VF Group - Bardiani CSF - Faizanè (PRT) | ✓ 2025 | |
269 | CRUZ Edward | 2025 | VF Group - Bardiani CSF - Faizanè (PRT) | ✓ 2025 |
A couple of observations of (very) young riders in pro teams.
Let's take a look at how these young riders are faring in the professional ranks. Are they already winning at a young age? The answer, as we’ll reveal now, is increasingly: yes. Below is a graph showing the average age of the 20 youngest winners in professional races, grouped by birth year. The trend, dating back to the 1980s, shows that riders are winning at progressively younger ages. For instance, the first 20 winners born in 1980 (the generation of Alejandro Valverde) had an average age of 23.37 years when they won their first pro race. In contrast, the top 20 winners born in 2002 (the generation of Arnaud De Lie) were, on average, only 20.59 years old on the day they claimed their first professional victory. That’s a difference of almost three years!
Let's take a look at how these young riders are faring in the professional ranks. Are they already winning at a young age? The answer, as we’ll reveal now, is increasingly: yes. Below is a graph showing the average age of the 20 youngest winners in professional races, grouped by birth year. The trend, dating back to the 1980s, shows that riders are winning at progressively younger ages. For instance, the first 20 winners born in 1980 (the generation of Alejandro Valverde) had an average age of 23.37 years when they won their first pro race. In contrast, the top 20 winners born in 2002 (the generation of Arnaud De Lie) were, on average, only 20.59 years old on the day they claimed their first professional victory. That’s a difference of almost three years!
Figure 4. Average age 20 youngest winners in professional races per birthyear.
- 1980
- 1981
- 1982
- 1983
- 1984
- 1985
- 1986
- 1987
- 1988
- 1989
- 1990
- 1991
- 1992
- 1993
- 1994
- 1995
- 1996
- 1997
- 1998
- 1999
- 2000
- 2001
- 2002
24
23
22
21
20
Figure 5. Youngest winners on pro-level born in 1987 compared to youngest winners born in 2002.
Only (former) pro riders considered.
Only (former) pro riders considered.
YoB | Rider | Age | Age | Rider | YoB | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1987 | URÁN Rigoberto | 20y + 139d | 19y + 263d | VACEK Mathias | 2002 | |||
1987 | BOASSON HAGEN Edvald | 20y + 323d | 19y + 310d | SHEFFIELD Magnus | 2002 | |||
1987 | GUARNIERI Jacopo | 21y + 361d | 20y + 133d | TRONCHON Bastien | 2002 | |||
1987 | ROUX Anthony | 22y + 157d | 20y + 136d | DE LIE Arnaud | 2002 | |||
1987 | IZAGIRRE Gorka | 22y + 248d | 20y + 202d | NYS Thibau | 2002 |
Top teams also tend to focus more and more on promising youngsters, shown by the number of riders under twenty years of age on WorldTour teams:
Oh, and if you're a scout or just curious to see which riders are tied to a pro contract or to a subteam of a flagship pro team, and, more importantly, who are still 'available', we've got you sorted. Check it out here.
Pavel Šumpík
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