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Top-10 Favorites for Tour de France 2024
27 June 2024, by Bert Lip
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A lot has been written about the big 4 favorites to win the Tour de France. But what happens if we apply our grand tour favorites formula on the starting list? The formula includes a weighted score on climbing, time trial and grand tour capabilities. In this formula, recent results have a bigger weight than older results. Grand tour capabilities are scored as a plus or minus factor (or neutral), depending on career performance in grand tours. Applying the formula, we get the following list of favorites. The scores are normalised at 100% for the top favorite.
Figure 1. Favorites according to a weighted scored formula based on climber and time trial capabilities.
RiderNormalized score
1POGAČAR Tadej
100
2VINGEGAARD Jonas
70.3
3YATES Adam
60.1
4EVENEPOEL Remco
59.3
5ROGLIČ Primož
59.3
6ALMEIDA João
51.1
7BILBAO Pello
49.8
8VLASOV Aleksandr
47.6
9BARDET Romain
42.9
10HINDLEY Jai
42.3
11YATES Simon
42.2
12RODRÍGUEZ Carlos
41.2
13LANDA Mikel
39.4
14AYUSO Juan
38.8
15PIDCOCK Thomas
38.2
16GALL Felix
35.8
17MAS Enric
34.2
18THOMAS Geraint
33.3
19GAUDU David
32.1
20BUITRAGO Santiago
31.8
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Lonely at the top of the list is Giro d'Italia winner Tadej Pogacar, followed by last years winner Jonas Vingegaard. In this list, Adam Yates receives the same score as Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic. One can argue that because Yates is a teammate of Pogacar, he has less chance of winning the race. Then, for the fun of it, let's check out some statistics on the top favorites.
Figure 2. Ages of the GC favorites.
#RiderAge
1 EVENEPOEL Remco24y + 156d
2 POGAČAR Tadej25y + 282d
3 VINGEGAARD Jonas27y + 202d
4 ROGLIČ Primož34y + 244d
..
Figure 3. Number of stage race DNFs in the past 5 years for the GC favorites.
  • 5
    5
    ROGLIČ
  • 4
    4
    EVENEPOEL
  • 1
    1
    VINGEGAARD
  • 0
    0
    POGAČAR
..
Figure 4. Racedays this season for the GC favorites.
#RiderRacedays
1 POGAČAR Tadej
31
2 EVENEPOEL Remco
26
3 ROGLIČ Primož
20
4 VINGEGAARD Jonas
15
..
Figure 5. Days since last raceday for GC riders untill start of Tour of France.
#RiderDays
1 VINGEGAARD Jonas86
2 POGAČAR Tadej34
3 ROGLIČ Primož20
4 EVENEPOEL Remco20
..
Figure 6. Top-10 career finishing percentage when the race ProfileScore is above 250.
Figure 7. Total time trial points scored for the GC favorites in the last 3 years.
#RiderPoints
1 EVENEPOEL Remco
2364
2 ROGLIČ Primož
1820
3 POGAČAR Tadej
1472
4 VINGEGAARD Jonas
1206
A thrilling Tour de France awaits us. Will the win go to the new cannibal Pogacar, to the old but tough Roglich, the time trial specialist Evenepoel or can Vingegaard reach his 2023 summer form soon? We quickly will find out.

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