Which 3 teams have done best with newly attracted riders over the past 5 years?
team analysis
11 January 2022, by Bert Lip
Whenever a rider changes teams, there are two possible outcomes; the rider either scores more or fewer points over the next year. There are a lot of factors affecting the performance of a rider at a new team, such as staff, race program, equipment and more. Without looking at why or making a judgement on the numbers, we have done an analysis on how many riders improved their previous season after switching teams.
DEFinitions
As with any research, the parameters and approach taken is fundamental to the outcome. To perform the analysis, all riders that were new on a team between 2017 and 2021 have been selected. Riders under age 19 are excluded because any score would be an improvement. This five year period fives a significant number of transfes to compare. The accumulated PCS points of a rider in the 12 months prior to the transfer are then compared to the points scored in the first 12 months after the transfer. Points scored in ME and U23 races are considered, same as those used in the PCS ranking. Next, the number of riders that have done better than the previous season is divided by the total of new riders in the same 5 year period, which gives a percentrage. The outcome is shown in Table 1, which includes all (current) UCI WorldTeams.
Table 1. % of new riders that outperformed previous season per team in period 2017-2021
| # | Team | #Better | #New riders | Avg. age | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl Team | 23 | 31 | 26.2 | |
| 2 | Groupama - FDJ | 17 | 25 | 24.4 | |
| 3 | Team Jumbo-Visma | 19 | 29 | 25.7 | |
| 4 | AG2R Citroën Team | 21 | 33 | 26.3 | |
| 5 | BORA - hansgrohe | 19 | 33 | 26.7 | |
| 6 | Lotto Soudal | 20 | 36 | 24.4 | |
| 7 | Trek - Segafredo | 21 | 38 | 26.7 | |
| 8 | INEOS Grenadiers | 16 | 29 | 25.7 | |
| 9 | Intermarché - Wanty - Gobert Matériaux | 20 | 37 | 26.9 | |
| 10 | Team DSM | 20 | 37 | 23.8 | |
| 11 | Israel - Premier Tech | 27 | 52 | 28.0 | |
| 12 | Astana Qazaqstan Team | 21 | 41 | 25.3 | |
| 13 | Movistar Team | 17 | 34 | 26.1 | |
| 14 | Bahrain - Victorious | 26 | 57 | 28.2 | |
| 15 | UAE-Team Emirates | 16 | 38 | 26.1 | |
| 16 | Cofidis | 16 | 39 | 27.3 | |
| 17 | EF Education-EasyPost | 16 | 42 | 26.5 | |
| 18 | Team BikeExchange Jayco | 8 | 22 | 27.0 |
The table shows that that Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl has attracted 31 new riders between 2017 and 2021. Of these riders, 23 accumulated more PCS points than in their previous season. In the column 'Avg. age' the average age of riders at the time of joining the team is depicted (note: excluding riders under age 19).
Top-3 teams
These numbers could strike you as a bit abstract; therefore, Tables 2 to 4 show the details of the top-3 teams. Table 2 shows a detailed overview of the Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl riders, with Mark Cavendish on top with a 1114 point increase in 2021. Remco Evenepoel, who skipped the U23 category and went straight from being a junior to accumulating 872 PCS points in his first season as a pro, is left out of the analysis, as any score would be an improvement.
Table 2. New riders on team Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl in period 2017-2021 ordered by highest increase in points compared to previous 12-month period
| # | Rider | Season | Points previous season | Points in first season | +/- points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAVENDISH Mark | 2021 | 13 | 1127 | ▲1114 |
| 2 | GILBERT Philippe | 2017 | 645 | 1504 | ▲859 |
| 3 | VIVIANI Elia | 2018 | 1364 | 2212 | ▲848 |
| 4 | ALMEIDA João | 2020 | 117 | 873 | ▲756 |
| 5 | JAKOBSEN Fabio | 2018 | 109 | 693 | ▲584 |
Table 3. New riders on team Groupama-FDJ in period 2017-2021 ordered by highest increase in points
| # | Rider | Season | Points previous season | Points in first season | +/- points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MADOUAS Valentin | 2018 | 23 | 489 | ▲466 |
| 2 | KÜNG Stefan | 2019 | 385 | 817 | ▲432 |
| 3 | GAUDU David | 2017 | 114 | 323 | ▲209 |
| 4 | GENIETS Kevin | 2019 | 0 | 178 | ▲178 |
| 5 | STEWART Jake | 2020 | 109 | 271 | ▲162 |
Table 4. New riders on team Jumbo-Visma in period 2017-2021 ordered by highest increase in points
| # | Rider | Season | Points previous season | Points in first season | +/- points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEUNISSEN Mike | 2019 | 376 | 1237 | ▲861 |
| 2 | VAN POPPEL Danny | 2018 | 300 | 769 | ▲469 |
| 3 | VAN AERT Wout | 2019 | 554 | 896 | ▲342 |
| 4 | DE PLUS Laurens | 2019 | 269 | 586 | ▲317 |
| 5 | VINGEGAARD Jonas | 2019 | 32 | 295 | ▲263 |
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