Which 3 teams have done best with newly attracted riders over the past 5 years?
team analysis
11 January 2022, by Bert Lip
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Whenever a rider changes teams, there are two possible outcomes; the rider either scores more or fewer points over the next year. There are a lot of factors affecting the performance of a rider at a new team, such as staff, race program, equipment and more. Without looking at why or making a judgement on the numbers, we have done an analysis on how many riders improved their previous season after switching teams.
As with any research, the parameters and approach taken is fundamental to the outcome. To perform the analysis, all riders that were new on a team between 2017 and 2021 have been selected. Riders under age 19 are excluded because any score would be an improvement. This five year period fives a significant number of transfes to compare. The accumulated PCS points of a rider in the 12 months prior to the transfer are then compared to the points scored in the first 12 months after the transfer. Points scored in ME and U23 races are considered, same as those used in the PCS ranking. Next, the number of riders that have done better than the previous season is divided by the total of new riders in the same 5 year period, which gives a percentrage. The outcome is shown in Table 1, which includes all (current) UCI WorldTeams.
Table 1. % of new riders that outperformed previous season per team in period 2017-2021
#Team#Better#New ridersAvg. age%
1 Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl Team233126.2
2 Groupama - FDJ172524.4
3 Team Jumbo-Visma192925.7
4 AG2R Citroën Team213326.3
5 BORA - hansgrohe193326.7
6 Lotto Soudal203624.4
7 Trek - Segafredo213826.7
8 INEOS Grenadiers162925.7
9 Intermarché - Wanty - Gobert Matériaux203726.9
10 Team DSM203723.8
11 Israel - Premier Tech275228.0
12 Astana Qazaqstan Team214125.3
13 Movistar Team173426.1
14 Bahrain - Victorious265728.2
15 UAE-Team Emirates163826.1
16 Cofidis163927.3
17 EF Education-EasyPost164226.5
18 Team BikeExchange Jayco 82227.0

The table shows that that Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl has attracted 31 new riders between 2017 and 2021. Of these riders, 23 accumulated more PCS points than in their previous season. In the column 'Avg. age' the average age of riders at the time of joining the team is depicted (note: excluding riders under age 19).
Top-3 teams
These numbers could strike you as a bit abstract; therefore, Tables 2 to 4 show the details of the top-3 teams. Table 2 shows a detailed overview of the Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl riders, with Mark Cavendish on top with a 1114 point increase in 2021. Remco Evenepoel, who skipped the U23 category and went straight from being a junior to accumulating 872 PCS points in his first season as a pro, is left out of the analysis, as any score would be an improvement.
Table 2. New riders on team Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl in period 2017-2021 ordered by highest increase in points compared to previous 12-month period
#RiderSeasonPoints previous seasonPoints in first season+/- points
1 CAVENDISH Mark2021131127▲1114
2 GILBERT Philippe20176451504▲859
3 VIVIANI Elia201813642212▲848
4 ALMEIDA João2020117873▲756
5 JAKOBSEN Fabio2018109693▲584
6 MASNADA Fausto202095626▲531
7 HODEG Álvaro José201827556▲529
8 VANSEVENANT Mauri202034375▲341
9 BAGIOLI Andrea202080321▲241
10 MAS Enric201789310▲221
11 NARVÁEZ Jhonatan2018104295▲191
12 MØRKØV Michael201899253▲154
13 CAVAGNA Rémi2017108235▲127
14 SÉNÉCHAL Florian2018279400▲121
15 KNOX James201854148▲94
16 VAN LERBERGHE Bert202026113▲87
17 BAUER Jack201778151▲73
18 ASGREEN Kasper2018174234▲60
19 SCHACHMANN Maximilian201798150▲52
20 BALLERINI Davide2020282334▲52
21 HONORÉ Mikkel Frølich20195687▲31
22 STEIMLE Jannik2020214223▲9
23 ARCHBOLD Shane20208897▲9
24 CAPECCHI Eros20179668▼28
25 GARRISON Ian20207037▼33
26 STEELS Stijn20205513▼42
27 DECLERCQ Tim201716550▼115
28 BENNETT Sam202012301068▼162
29 ČERNÝ Josef2021361194▼167
30 CATTANEO Mattia2020411174▼237
31 DEVENYNS Dries2017644214▼430
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Table 3. New riders on team Groupama-FDJ in period 2017-2021 ordered by highest increase in points
#RiderSeasonPoints previous seasonPoints in first season+/- points
1 MADOUAS Valentin201823489▲466
2 KÜNG Stefan2019385817▲432
3 GAUDU David2017114323▲209
4 GENIETS Kevin20190178▲178
5 STEWART Jake2020109271▲162
6 PREIDLER Georg201879218▲139
7 SEIGLE Romain201813121▲108
8 FRANKINY Kilian2019102198▲96
9 VAN DEN BERG Lars2021772▲65
10 GUGLIELMI Simon20201052▲42
11 BRUNEL Alexys20203475▲41
12 MOLARD Rudy2017163204▲41
13 ARMIRAIL Bruno20183162▲31
14 DUCHESNE Antoine20185171▲20
15 SCOTSON Miles20196987▲18
16 DAVY Clément2021015▲15
17 CIMOLAI Davide2017176188▲12
18 VALTER Attila2021233229▼4
19 LUDVIGSSON Tobias2017134127▼7
20 VINCENT Léo20173221▼11
21 SINKELDAM Ramon2018166142▼24
22 BADILATTI Matteo2021173111▼62
23 LIENHARD Fabian202016678▼88
24 GUARNIERI Jacopo201726610▼256
25 THOMAS Benjamin201837261▼311
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Table 4. New riders on team Jumbo-Visma in period 2017-2021 ordered by highest increase in points
#RiderSeasonPoints previous seasonPoints in first season+/- points
1 TEUNISSEN Mike20193761237▲861
2 VAN POPPEL Danny2018300769▲469
3 VAN AERT Wout2019554896▲342
4 DE PLUS Laurens2019269586▲317
5 VINGEGAARD Jonas201932295▲263
6 BOOM Lars2017188431▲243
7 DUMOULIN Tom2020372615▲243
8 AFFINI Edoardo202146284▲238
9 JANSEN Amund Grøndahl2017112283▲171
10 TOLHOEK Antwan201721136▲115
11 VAN HOOYDONCK Nathan202126135▲109
12 EENKHOORN Pascal201855159▲104
13 OOMEN Sam2021160235▲75
14 LEEMREIZE Gijs20211084▲74
15 KUSS Sepp2018225284▲59
16 OLIVIER Daan2017049▲49
17 POWLESS Neilson2018156191▲35
18 DEKKER David20217089▲19
19 HOFSTEDE Lennard20193949▲10
20 FOSS Tobias20208581▼4
21 MARTIN Tony2019221212▼9
22 PFINGSTEN Christoph202010013▼87
23 VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen201711827▼91
24 DE TIER Floris201719294▼98
25 LOBATO Juan José2017421305▼116
26 VAN HOECKE Gijs201717940▼139
27 CLEMENT Stef2017359182▼177
28 HARPER Chris202030044▼256
29 VAN DER HOORN Taco2019395104▼291
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